A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
